JustThinking.us

Sometimes, I deliberately forget to take my medicine before I go to bed, knowing full well that I will come wide awake between 3:05 and 3:15 AM

Back in the day, I used to wake up making deals, deal making being one of the things I do for a living.

Now days, I usually wake up free of a thought.

I like it.

To my way of thinking, my head empty of noise is a good thing.

So having failed to take my medication last night I came wide awake at precisely 3:12 AM as expected.

Only this time, I was thinking about War.

War with Iran feels inevitable to me.

Paranoid Roany is pretty damn sure that "The Powers That Be" are goading Israel into a war with Iran that's gonna blow up into an ungodly horror in an effort to change the subject away from the absolutely criminal job they've done on our economy.

Evil Roany is pretty sure there's a mess of those Iranian assholes that need killing anyway.

Good Roany on the other hand ........ is uhhhmm ........ well ........ Good Roany ........ you know ...... is pretty much in agreement with Evil Roany on this one.

Which brings me to my point.

In the past, if we were mad at somebody, we'd declare war on the whole damn country.

We declared war on Germany (twice), Japan, I'm pretty sure we declared war on Italy.

Korea was a little different.

That was a "Police Action".

It was authorized by the United Nations Security Council.

Basically, everybody was still sick of war after two "World Wars" so ......... they called it something different.

Same basic theory as "Liberal" and "Progressive".

Vietnam was also different in that it was authorized by "The Gulf of Tonkin Resolution" which was not a formal declaration of war, but rather provided then President Lindon Johnson with the authority to do whatever was necessary including the use of military force to assist any member or protocol state of the Southeast Asia Collective Defense Treaty (in this case South Vietnam) without a formal declaration of war.

Close enough for government work.

The "Joint Resolution to Authorize the Use of United States Armed Forces Pursuant to United Nations Security Council Resolution 678" authorized "The Gulf War".

The "Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Terrorists" got us started in Afghanistan.

Congress authorized the present war in Iraq with the "Iraq War Resolution (formally the Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Iraq Resolution of 2002)".

Ok, so here's my thought.

I don't want to have a war with Iran.

Sure, there's a bunch of guys over there I'd like see dead, and would even cheerfully chip in toward their demise.

But I kind of like a lot of the Iranian people.

I'm on their side, I don't want to hurt em.

Hell, I think a lot of them are heroes.

So, instead of naming the damn thing something that's gonna drag a lot of people that I like into a mess they don't need, like "The resolution to get nuclear weapons the hell out of Iran".

Why not just declare war on the assholes?

Leave the Iranian people out of it.

So, if it's me, I'm naming it "The resolution to kill deader'n Hell; Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mullah Ali Khamenei, the entire Iranian Parliament, the couple hundred pricks still around who attacked our embassy, and anyone else dumb enough to want to attempt to defend the above named assholes.  After which we'll be as gone as Keyser Soze and wishing the rest of you (and your children) long, healthy and happy lives."

I know it's long, but it is beautiful in it's precision.

Here's where the beauty resides.

Let's just for fun pretend we're Iranian citizens.  And the word gets out that The United States of America has just declared war on us.

Ahmadinejad is all over the TV about how we must defend our country against the American invaders.  This is scary stuff, and because we're scared, we're getting real damn mad.  Our hearts are in our throats as we prepare to defend our families, our wives, our children, our selves, our country.

Then the word gets out.

The Americans aren't coming after us, they're coming after that dickhead Ahmadinejad.

Aahhhhhhh!!!!

This changes everything.

Now, instead of being scared and madder'n Hell, we're starting to channel Tonto,

"What do you mean we, white man?"

Now, instead of oiling up the AK-47 and running off to some damn barricade to fight, we're oiling up the AK-47 but staying home, just in case one of the assholes decides they want to hide under our bed.

I like to think that (if I thought I could get away with it), I'd pop a cap or two in one of the bastard's asses myself, if only to save a little time.

People should listen to their Uncle Roany.

I got answers.

That's OK I guess ..... no one believed me anyway.

From the International Harry Schultz Letter

If pro is the opposite of con.

What is the opposite of progress ..... ?

Congress.

That ain't funny!!!

 Having been called into question by my old friend, Dougy for my cavalier treatment of one of the most, if not the single most, revered football quotes of all time.

Here it is, offered with the respect it deserves.

And then of course there's Lombardi's second most well known quote.

That's a good one too.

The quants strike again.

Simon Kuper and Stefan Szymanski have applied the following forecasting model they developed for their book “Why England Lose” to the 2010 FIFA World Cup Tournament.

GD(ij) =0.137 log (pop (i)/pop (j)) + 0.145 log (y (i)/y (j)) + 0.739 log (exp (i)/exp (j))

Where i and j are the opposing sides.

“GD” is the goal difference between the two sides, “pop” = population, “y” = GDP per head and “exp” = team experience.

South Africa gets an additional 0.657 each game for home team advantage.

The above formula based on the ratio between the opposing team’s populations, GDP per person, experience and home field advantage for the host nation, Kuper and Syzmanski have applied linear regression (Huh?) to show that the outcome of international matches can be accurately predicted 72% of the time. 

Their winner?

Brazil over Serbia.

Click the chart below for a larger, more readable version.

The chart was scanned from a Wired Magazine UK article at my other new favorite site, Chart Porn

The favored matchup by the betting public is England v. Brazil at about 14/1.

The odds for a Serbia v. Brazil final currently stand at about 150/1.

I'm thinking about it for a hundred.

I might put another hundred on Spain, my favorite team, to win.

Why Spain?

They play the beautiful game.

England?

Lose

At least now we know why.

Playboy.com journalist Mike Guy underwent waterboarding by a trained member of the U.S. military in the site's new Lab Rat feature.

Guy bet that he could endure 15 seconds of the interrogation technique used by the Bush administration on al Qaeda chief Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and Abu Zubaydah.

Thanks again to David Michaels for another lead.

And of course, David is surfing strictly for the articles.

Lost in all the hoopla surrounding the joyced up Galarraga perfect game is the retirement of Ken Griffey Jr.

A dead certain first ballot Hall of Fame inductee.

22 years in the major leagues.

 Fifth on the all time home run list with 630.

10 Golden Glove awards.

12 All-Star game appearances.

1992 All-Star game MVP.

1997 American League MVP.

Possibly more notable were his failures.

Failed to ever test positive for steroids, or other performance enhancing drugs.

Failed to ever receive a subpoena to testify before Congress.

Failed to ever be associated with BALCO, Jose Canseco or to show up in the Mitchell Report.

A class act, and a credit to the game of Baseball.