The Bradley Model

Submitted by Roanman on Mon, 02/15/2010 - 06:37

 

The Bradley Model is a chart constructed on a set of astrological parameters defined by Donald A. Bradley in his famed 1948 book, Stock Market Prediction (The Planetary Barometer and How to Use it).

The foreward, by Llewellyn George begins as follows:

"Although this text is not primarily intended to be a stock market forecaster, yet by judicious operators it is quite likely to become their most valued treasure for anticipating trends and changes which are due to mass mind activity.

It tells how to properly chart that psychological activity in compliance with well known planetary forces."

OK, now I understand fully that your first inclination here will be to laugh like hell, and go to chaneling Festus, who once famously said to the apostle Paul, "You are beside yourself!  Much learning is driving you mad!"

Especially those of you who insist on picking up the telephone in order to offer a personal harangue over any mostly innocent notion I may have that doesn't correspond perfectly with your own personal world view.

YOU KNOW WHO YOU ARE !!!

Before you go there however, consider this.

If you're a Christian, and I know for a fact that a mess of you are.

On the fourth day, God himself said, and I'm quoting here,

"Let there be lights in the firmament of the heavens to divide the day from the night; and let them be for signs and seasons, and for days and years."

The word Lunacy is derived from the same root as the word Lunar, Luna the Roman moon goddess. This relationship extends to other languages, most notably Welsh where these two words are lloer and lloerig.

Regardless of you spiritual inclination, anecdotal evidence persists regarding police department and emergency rooms ramping up during full moons, although there is almost no scientific or statistical evidence of any correlation between the full moon and increased crime, emergency room visits, births or anything else.  

Almost without exception, every study that has been able to demonstrate any correlation between the full moon and any studied event has been subsequently debunked.  What's most interesting here is that the debunkers almost universally believe in "Global Warming" (Just Kidding)

The Chart below is that for the "Bradley Model" calculated from about 1840 through about 2040.

It is simply charting the sum (positive or negative, zero is down the middle) of a set of mathematical values Bradley attached to the angles of relationship between the Sun, the Moon, and the planets that make up our solar system.

Planets in relationship of or near 0, 60, 90, 120 and 180 degrees were considered and a value (again positive or negative) was assigned each.

The positive or negative values were assigned on the basis of the historic consensus having to do with the benefic, or malefic qualities of each planet within each angular relationship between the planets.

Got that?

Don't worry about it.  Here's all you gotta know.

Just look at the chart, up is good, down is bad.

 

 

 

It catches the "The Panic of 1873", which began "The Long Depression" which according to the National Bureau of Economic Research lasted until March 1979, a total of 65 months and longer by nearly a year and a half than "The Great Depression"

Take note of the extremely low, low point that so nicely corresponds with the "Crash of 29" stock market descent that extended from 9/3/29 until about 7/32, and the mostly continuous lows during "The Great Depression".

It catches "The Panic of 1910", the "Black Monday" crash of October 19, 1987.

And, how bout that big fat high point sitting over the middle to late 1990's.

Now, let's consider the summer of 2010.

Whoa!!!

DANGER WILL ROBINSON, DANGER!!!

(The above was a time continuum joke)

Your Uncle Roany is in Cash (Mostly Canadian) and Gold!!!

I'm just sayin.

 

 

Reading on a Saturday Morning

Submitted by Roanman on Sat, 02/13/2010 - 09:53

 

Those of you who know me well, know that unless I have properly medicated myself, I don't sleep worth a damn.

You also know that I truly enjoy my medication (child of the 60's with all that implies).

Better sleep through chemistry being one of my several dozen favored mottos.

The consensus diagnosis has up until just recently always been "guilty conscience".

But a new diagnosis is emerging.

 "It's the crap you read!!!!!"

Examples follow:

 

It’s likely the Fed will respond with a new round of injections, sending the dollar into a death spiral, much like the present situation in Venezuela. It will be another disaster for those who aren’t ready, and more huge profits for those who are … I’m staying focused on what I believe are the two carved-in-granite long term investment trends: more war, and more debasement of the US dollar.” - Richard Maybury, Early Warning Report, 02-10 

 

“…the United States no longer has Israeli national security as an overriding consideration…

In the unlikely event that Iran actually does develop a weapon and does strike, Israel is the likely target…a nuclear strike would have a particularly devastating effect on Israel. Unlike the United States, Israel is small country with a highly concentrated population. A strike with just one or two weapons could destroy Israel. …

Carrying out a multiday or even multiweek air campaign with Israel's available force is too likely to be insufficient and too likely to fail. Israel's most effective option for taking out Iran's nuclear activities is itself nuclear. Israel could strike Iran from submarines if it genuinely intended to stop Iran's program.” – George Friedman, STRATFOR, 02-04-10 

 

“For every dollar in debt that Americans have paid off since they started cleansing their balance sheets in mid-2008, the U.S. government has borrowed more than $7.” – MarketWatch, 02-08-10

 

Maybe.

 

Rest in peace, Charlie Wilson

Submitted by Roanman on Fri, 02/12/2010 - 11:33

 

I fell in love with Charlie Wilson having read the following two quotes in a Wall Street Journal article written by John Fund about the time "Charlie Wilson's War" was appearing in theaters across the country.

The first, wherein he promised his constituents that were he to ever get caught in a scandal,

"I won't blame booze and I won't suddenly find Jesus."

The second, in that interview with John Fund about having toured Afghanistan, and having seen the starvation of the Afghan people, and the Afghan children whose hands had been blown off by explosives disguised as toys.

"I decided to grab the commie sons o'bitches by the throat."

This was a man I can admire.

If you have some time, rent the movie, or buy the book by the same name.

Be warned, the language is terrible, still the story is very worthwhile.

Rest in peace Charlie Wilson, and you too "Gust" Avrakotos.

God bless you both.

 

To quote Gregor MacDonald

Submitted by Roanman on Thu, 02/11/2010 - 06:51

 

“The inevitable coming of the sovereign debt panic finally engulfed Europe this week as the derisively (or perhaps affectionately) named PIGS spilled their slop on the continent.

But Portugal, Ireland, Greece, and Spain are hardly worthy of so much attention.

In truth, they are little more than the currently favored proxies among the leveraged speculator community (cough) for the larger problem of all sovereign debt.

Indeed, the credit default swaps on these smaller European satellite states were not alone this week in making large moves higher.

UK sovereign risk rose strongly, and so did US sovereign risk. With a downgrade warning from Moody’s to boot.

“Notable among three of the PIGS are their relatively small populations, and small contributions to either world or European GDP.

While Spain has a population over 45 million, Portugal and Greece have populations roughly equal to a US state, such as Ohio–at around 10 million.

And Ireland? The Emerald Isle has a population similar to Kentucky, at around 4 million.

While the PIGS are without question a problem for Europe, whatever problems they present for Brussels are easily matched by the looming headache for Washington that’s coming from large, US states such as California, Florida, Illinois, Ohio, and Michigan.

“My seven states of energy debt represent a full 35% of the total US population.

As with other US states, they face looming policy clashes between protected state and city workers on one hand, and the growing ranks of the private economy’s underemployed on the other.

The recent circus at the LA City Council meeting was a nice foreshadowing that the days of unlimited borrowing by governments–against future growth based on cheap energy–is coming to an end.

Washington can print up dollars and fund these states for years, if it so chooses.

But just as with the 70 million people in Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain, the 108 million people in these seven large states are probably facing even higher levels of unemployment as austerity measures finally slam into their cashless coffers, and reduce their ability to borrow.”
 

To quote Ben Bernanke 11/21/02

Submitted by Roanman on Wed, 02/10/2010 - 07:18

 

"Like gold, U.S. dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in supply.

But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost.

By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services.

We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation." 

 

To quote Dan Denning

Submitted by Roanman on Wed, 02/10/2010 - 07:02

Race, Family, Crime and Poverty

Submitted by Roanman on Sat, 02/06/2010 - 09:14

Alright, here's the story:

Black People on average,  earn less money than Asians, White People, Hispanics and American Indians (pretty close), in that order. This is true regardless of the level of educational attainment. Black People on average are less well educated than White People, although they are on average better educated than Hispanics.

Up until recently, in a given year, more White People (about 38.8%) than Blacks (about 37.2%) have collected welfare benefits. 

Black People make up about 12% of the American People.

Black People are imprisoned at a significantly higher rate than Whites.

Blacks commit a significantly higher percentage of violent crimes relative to their percentage of the total population (FBI crime statistics combine Whites and Hispanics into the same group, called White). Asians on average commit fewer violent criminal acts than anybody.  

The right seemingly loves to reference a 1990 report that I can't find (but am inclined to believe exists) from The Progressive Policy Institute research arm of the Democratic Leadership Council that states the “relationship between crime and one-parent families” is “so strong that controlling for family configuration erases the relationship between race and crime and between low-income and crime." 

Additionally, children from biological two parent families on average miss fewer school days, have higher grade point averages, and are more likely to attend college. Of those who attend college, children from biological two parent families are more likely to graduate than children from both single parent families and children from biological/stepparent families.

They are also far less likely to live in poverty and far less likely to engage in criminal behavior. 

As an aside, children from single father families, father/stepmother families and mother/stepfather families have consistently lower educational attainments than children from both two biological parent and single mother families. The Wisconsin Department of Health and Social Services, in a 1994 report entitled “Family Status of Delinquents in Juvenile Correctional Facilities in Wisconsin,” (which despite being referenced  like crazy, has seemingly disappeared from the web) found that only 13 percent came from families in which the biological mother and father were married to each other.  By contrast, 33 percent had parents who were either divorced or separated, and 44 percent had parents who had never married.

The 1987 Survey of Youth in Custody,  published by the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics, found that 70 percent of youth in state reform institutions across the U.S. had grown up in single- or no-parent situations. Black children under age 18 are significantly less likely than other children to live with two married parents, with only 35 percent living with two married parents in 2005.

The percentage increased from 33 percent in 1995 to 39 percent in 2002 before declining to 35 percent in 2005.

In 1965 the Office of Policy Planning and Research of the United States Department of Labor published a report titled  The Negro Family: The Case for National Action, later commonly known as the Moynihan Report, after Daniel Patrick Moynihan then Assistant Secretary of Labor and future three term Democratic Senator from New York, Ambassador to India, and United States Representative to the United Nations, which stated as follows:

"The United States is approaching a new crisis in race relations.  In the decade that began with the school desegregation decision of the Supreme Court, and ended with the passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, the demand of Negro Americans for full recognition of their civil rights was finally met. The effort, no matter how savage and brutal, of some State and local governments to thwart the exercise of those rights is doomed. The nation will not put up with it — least of all the Negroes.

The present moment will pass.  In the meantime, a new period is beginning. In this new period the expectations of the Negro Americans will go beyond civil rights. Being Americans, they will now expect that in the near future equal opportunities for them as a group will produce roughly equal results, as compared with other groups. This is not going to happen. Nor will it happen for generations to come unless a new and special effort is made.

There are two reasons. First, the racist virus in the American blood stream still afflicts us: Negroes will encounter serious personal prejudice for at least another generation.  Second, three centuries of sometimes unimaginable mistreatment have taken their toll on the Negro people. The harsh fact is that as a group, at the present time, in terms of ability to win out in the competitions of American life, they are not equal to most of those groups with which they will be competing. Individually, Negro Americans reach the highest peaks of achievement. 

But collectively, in the spectrum of American ethnic and religious and regional groups, where some get plenty and some get none, where some send eighty percent of their children to college and others pull them out of school at the 8th grade, Negroes are among the weakest. The fundamental problem, in which this is most clearly the case, is that of family structure.

The evidence — not final, but powerfully persuasive — is that the Negro family in the urban ghettos is crumbling. A middle class group has managed to save itself, but for vast numbers of the unskilled, poorly educated city working class the fabric of conventional social relationships has all but disintegrated. There are indications that the situation may have been arrested in the past few years, but the general post war trend is unmistakable. So long as this situation persists, the cycle of poverty and disadvantage will continue to repeat itself. 

The thesis of this paper is that these events, in combination, confront the nation with a new kind of problem. Measures that have worked in the past, or would work for most groups in the present, will not work here. A national effort is required that will give a unity of purpose to the many activities of the Federal government in this area, directed to a new kind of national goal: the establishment of a stable Negro family structure. 

In a word, a national effort towards the problems of Negro Americans must be directed towards the question of family structure. The object should be to strengthen the Negro family so as to enable it to raise and support its members as do other families. After that, how this group of Americans chooses to run its affairs, take advantage of its opportunities, or fail to do so, is none of the nation's business. The fundamental importance and urgency of restoring the Negro American Family structure has been evident for some time." 

E. Franklin Frazier had already put it most succinctly in 1950:

"As the result of family disorganization a large proportion of Negro children and youth have not undergone the socialization which only the family can provide. The disorganized families have failed to provide for their emotional needs and have not provided the discipline and habits which are necessary for personality development. Because the disorganized family has failed in its function as a socializing agency, it has handicapped the children in their relations to the institutions in the community. Moreover, family disorganization has been partially responsible for a large amount of juvenile delinquency and adult crime among Negroes. Since the widespread family disorganization among Negroes has resulted from the failure of the father to play the role in family life required by American society, the mitigation of this problem must await those changes in the Negro and American society which will enable the Negro father to play the role required of him."

The Moynihan report was not greeted with great enthusiasm

45 years later.............

 

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